In a previous article, we discussed the performances of the four biggest UK parties, by number of seats.
This article covers the performance of several of the smaller parties, and touched on what the future may look like for them.
(picture shows Jim Shannon MP, one of the DUP stalwarts)
Sinn Féin
Election night was one of victory for Sinn Féin, retaining their 7 seats and becoming the largest Northern Irish party in Westminster, due to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) losing 3 seats. Sinn Féin even came within touching distance of picking up seat number 8 in East Londonderry, previously considered a DUP safe seat, with a result so close it forced a recount. After the recount it emerged that the DUP had retained the seat, but only by 179 votes, with Sinn Féin in a close second.
As well now as now at Westminster, Sinn Féin are also the largest party in Stormont, and in local government in Northern Ireland. Although the largest Northern Irish party, Sinn Féin will not take their seats in Westminster, following the policy of abstentionism, a long held tradition and act of protest against the British state, in an effort to signal their non recognition of British sovereignty over Northern Ireland.
Sinn Féin’s Stormont economy minister Conor Murphy, stated after the election that the results, in combination with the other electoral achievements listed above, display a clear political trend towards Irish unity, and that “The idea of putting our head in the sand and not recognising the change that’s happening does a disservice to the entire community.”.
Sinn Féin will hope that this recent electoral success will keep them well placed for the upcoming Irish election, expected later on this year.
Democratic Unionist Party
As alluded to briefly above, the election was a tough one for the DUP, crashing down to just 5 seats and down 0.2% on their previous vote share. A stark contrast to the earlier, pre Brexit DUP that propped up Theresa May’s government in a confidence and supply deal.
One of the seats lost in the election was the seat of North Antrim, held previously by Ian Paisley Junior and now held by Jim Allister of the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). Prior to this loss, the seat had been held by Paisley Jr since 2010, and held by his father before him, from 1970.
After his defeat had been confirmed, Paisley declined to answer questions from the media, but briefly congratulated his successor and admitted that the result had not gone his way.
Mr Allister described his victory by stating “There is no escaping the fact that there has been a political earthquake in North Antrim of seismic proportions”.
Commentators have discussed how the drop in seat share for the DUP displays a split within the unionist faction of Northern Irish politics. To alleviate this split, the DUP will need to unite the unionist vote going forwards, if they wish to reclaim their previous electoral power.
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru had a modestly successful election night, doubling their seat share from 2 to 4 and increasing their vote share by 4.9% in comparison with 2019. They won victories in the seats of Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin, winning both seats from The Conservatives. Both seats had been targeted by Plaid Cymru as potentially winnable during the campaign.
Although gaining 9 seats, the Labour vote share in Wales dipped by 3.9%, likely due to recent controversies within the Welsh Labour leadership and controversial legislation such as the implementation of the 20mph speed limit. Whilst one should not assume directly that this drop in vote share automatically trended as a single voting block to Plaid Cymru, it is reasonable to assume that Plaid will have benefited from this significantly, as both parties occupy a similar political space.
Plaid leader Rhun ap lowerth praised the results as “terrific” and also said that the results “give me confidence looking towards the Senedd elections in 2026.”
In their manifesto Plaid called for Welsh independence, ‘fair funding for Wales’, windfall taxes on energy companies, an increase in child benefit and net zero by 2035, amongst other things.
Whilst this election result is a positive one for Plaid Cymru, there is yet a long road ahead of them before they can hope to see changes akin to those outlined in their manifesto.
Green Party
The Green party had a very successful election night, quadrupling their seat share from 1 to 4 and surpassing the exit poll prediction of 2 seats. The Greens also observed their vote share rise by 4% to 6.7%.
MP Siân Berry held the seat of Brighton Pavilion, and the three gains came from wins in North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley, and in Bristol Central, where co leader Carla Denyer defeated the then shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire. These wins should be attributed to the great logistical efforts made by The Greens, having identified them as target seats in Autumn 2023 and directing copious amounts of campaign resources into them, both before and during the election campaign.
The Greens also finished in second place in 39 seats in England and Wales, giving them a solid base of support to build on for the next general election.
It is highly likely that the Green Party will now use their platform to argue for legislation aimed at tackling climate change, addressing inequality, and will continue the fight for electoral reform, specifically to a system that incorporates an element of proportional representation (PR).
The Greens have long argued for this and will feel that now is the perfect time to highlight this issue and attempt to open up a dialogue about it.
Newly elected Green MP for North Herefrdshire Ellie Chowns has already begun the campaign for this with an article in The Guardian, stating that had this election been conducted under a PR system, the Green Party would have around 40 MP’s, instead of 4.
Labour have previously made comments sympathetic to the idea of this type of electoral reform, but will now likely attempt to suppress the issue, having been delivered 63% of the seats in The Commons on a vote share of 33.7%.
Reform UK
Another party likely to campaign for electoral reform is the aptly named, Reform UK.
At 10pm on the 4th of July the exit poll was released, and a collective shock was felt when it predicted that Reform UK would win 13 seats. Such a result, had it materialised would have sent shockwaves through the British electoral system. The exit poll proved incorrect on this occasion, and Reform ended the night on 5 seats, with Lee Anderson, who had previously defected from the Conservatives, retaining the seat of Ashfield and Reform gaining 4 others.
Reforms four gains came from Richard Tice in Boston & Skegness, Rupert Lowe in Great Yarmouth, James McMurdock in South Basildon & East Thurrock, and finally, party leader Nigel Farage in Clacton, finally successful in his eighth attempt to become an MP.
In a speech given after his win, Farage claimed that “There is a massive gap on the centre right of British politics and my job is to fill it.”, seemingly ending speculation of a potential defection or merger with The Conservatives. Both before and during the campaign, Farage had been adamant that the election was already lost to Labour, and that he and his party are now the “real” opposition to Labour.
This rhetoric is in line with apparent Reform strategy, with news circulating that they have adopted a “two election strategy”, with the party hoping that this election would serve as an electoral building block, from which to challenge Labour for power at the next election. This strategy seems to not consider The Conservatives, with Reform seemingly confident they can overtake them as the primary right wing ideological opposition to Labour, in time for the next election.
Reform achieved 4.1 million votes in total in the election and a vote share of 14.3%. As mentioned above, Reform will likely press for electoral change alongside the Green Party, as a vote share of 14% in a PR system would have granted Reform 94 seats, according to the Electoral Reform Society.
That being said, Reform’s recorded vote share might not be entirely accurate of the mood of the electorate, as accusations have been levelled at Reform for putting forward candidates that did not exist or that had been generated by AI. Reform have denied fielding any candidates that did not exist but have admitted to fielding “paper candidates”. Paper candidates are candidates that actually exist, but do not engage in any field work such as canvassing, leafleting, hustings, etc, and were placed on the ballot simply to increase Reform’s national vote share.
Reform have not commented on how many of their 609 candidates were fielded with this intention in mind.
Although a fairly successful night for Reform, it remains to be seen just how influential they can be in Parliament against such an enormous Labour majority.
Another issue for Reform lies in which direction a new leader of The Conservatives takes their party. Should a new leader tack significantly rightwards to negate Reforms influence, Reform may find themselves cast aside by the electorate, and be nothing more than an afterthought come 2029.
Written by Zac Clark
The picture of Jim Shannon MP is provided by the House of Commons under a Creative Commons licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/