With the 2024 General Election fast approaching, the Politics Blog looks to the possibilities of what this could mean for Edge Hill Universities constituency, West Lancashire.
Past elections
When looking forward to an election, examining past elections is a useful indicator of the political views of the constituency the MP seat covers. The most recent history of West Lancashire since 2010 shows a clear trend of Labour successfully winning and holding onto this seat. The majority that Labour has held has increased noticeably from 2010, progressing from 4,343 to 8,336 in the 2019 General Election. It is clear that the West Lancashire area has historically contained a predominately Labour voting population which could indicate the future voting decisions of constituents in the upcoming election.
Current seat candidates
It should also looked at who is is running in the West Lancs seat in the general election. The incumbent, Ashley Dalton, has announced that she will be seeking re-election as a Labour candidate in the election. She won the seat in the February 2023 West Lancs By-election, with things such as fighting for a Skelmersdale Train Station and reducing fuel bill being her priorities. Dalton has yet to announce her manifesto for the 2024 General Election.
The Conservative candidate in the coming election is Mike Prendergast, a local solicitor who ran in 2023 by-election for this constituency. His main priorities include things such as campaigning for lower taxes for families and businesses, keeping West Lancashire rural and delivering investment in road and rail infrastructure in West Lancashire. Prendergast has yet to announce his manifesto for the 2024 General Election.
The Reform UK candidate for this constituency is Simon Evans, running for the first time in this constituency. His priorities surround around the ideas of reforming immigration policies in order to protect the borders, guaranteeing personal freedom of speech and thought and a pragmatic approach to polices. Evans has yet to announce his manifesto or policies ideas for the 2024 General Election.
For the Liberal Democrats Graham Smith is running and for the Green Party Charlotte Houltram is running. Currently no further information could be found of their campaigns.
Current party polling
As of the 31st May, current party polling averages are indicating a strong Labour lead. Labour are sitting at 45% for average voting intention, with the Conservatives being around 20 points behind at 24%. Reform UK are at 11% currently, Liberal Democrats are slightly further behind at 9% and the Green Party are at 6%. In addition to this, the Scottish National Party are sitting with 3% of the average voting intention and Plaid Cymru are at 1%, however both these parties are only campaigning within Scotland and Wales rather than nationwide.
For more information on currently party polling please see the BBC poll tracker: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726
Conclusively, at the initials of the election campaign, it can be seen that there is a strong Labour lead nationwide and historically within the West Lancashire constituency.
However, the biggest impact on an election is your vote. Registering to vote and ensuring you have a valid ID is vital to participating in this election.
Please see https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote to register to vote.
If you currently don’t hold a valid voter ID that is listed here https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/photo-id-youll-need, you can apply for a government provided Voter Authority Certificate before 5pm on 26 June 2024. Please see https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-photo-id-voter-authority-certificate to apply.