{"id":38,"date":"2015-02-11T12:03:17","date_gmt":"2015-02-11T12:03:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edgehill.ac.uk\/election\/?p=38"},"modified":"2015-05-12T11:46:51","modified_gmt":"2015-05-12T10:46:51","slug":"leaders-debates-a-lot-of-fuss-about-nothing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edgehill.ac.uk\/comment\/2015\/02\/11\/leaders-debates-a-lot-of-fuss-about-nothing\/","title":{"rendered":"Leaders\u2019 Debates \u2013 a lot of fuss about nothing?"},"content":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s certainly been a huge amount of fuss about the Leaders\u2019 debates.\u00a0 Will they happen?\u00a0 Who will be included?\u00a0 When will they take place?<\/p>\n

All the rows certainly make for good copy.<\/p>\n

But we are missing the bigger question, which is what do these debates actually mean?\u00a0 How can we read them and their significance?<\/p>\n

The 2010 election in the UK saw these debates take place for the first time.\u00a0 We were used to seeing Presidential debates in the US.\u00a0 But despite challenges from one side to another over a number of poll contests, the UK had never quite got around to organising them.<\/p>\n

The debates certainly attracted viewers.\u00a0 The first of the three 2010 contests had more than nine million viewers, more than Coronation Street.<\/a>\u00a0 Media outlets organised viewer polls and commentators went into overdrive.\u00a0 \u00a0Based on audience reception, Lib Dem poll numbers soared and \u201cI agree with Nick\u201d became the latest catchphrase.<\/p>\n

Fast forward to election night however and the Lib Dems lost seats.<\/a>\u00a0 So how significant are debates and how do we read them?<\/p>\n

The first key point is timing.\u00a0 Today any UK voter can get a postal vote without giving a specific<\/a> reason.\u00a0 With postal voting increasing, there are effectively two polling days.\u00a0 Evidence shows that most postal voters fill in their papers as soon as they get them.\u00a0 Any debate after this mailing then can only have an effect on some of the electorate.<\/p>\n

The second key point is interpretation.\u00a0 Much of the coverage of the debates last time was not about what was said, but who had won.\u00a0 And this was based not just on polls but on sophisticated spin operations.\u00a0 Our first leaders\u2019 debates also saw our first post- debate spin rooms.\u00a0 After each event teams from the three parties worked on reporters and commentators who were there in person.\u00a0 Party staff and high profile politicians like Paddy Ashdown answered questions about \u201chow their guy had done\u201d.\u00a0 Common practice in the US,\u00a0 this was dramatized in US drama the West Wing with spinner CJ Cregg and surrogates for the candidate fighting their way through the throng.<\/p>\n

Attempts have been made to assess whether the 2010 debates had a significant effect on voting decisions.\u00a0 Pattie and Johnston[1]<\/a> looked at data from the British Election survey to see if the events had been persuasive in any way. And while there is evidence of polls and opinions being influenced, particularly by the first of the three debates, Pattie and Johnston call for some perspective.\u00a0 \u201cMost voters,\u201d they write \u201chad made up their minds long before the campaign began, let alone the debates held.\u00a0 For them, the debates may have confirmed them in that decision, or may have had no effect at all\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act (2011)<\/a> means we have known the General Election date for quite some time.\u00a0 That\u2019s quite some time to make up our minds.\u00a0 Leaders\u2019 debates may be the icing on the cake for the Newsnight crowd, but they are unlikely to really change minds.<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Pattie and Johnston (2011) A Tale of Sound and Fury, Signifying Something?\u00a0 Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 21:2 147-177.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s certainly been a huge amount of fuss about the Leaders\u2019 debates.\u00a0 Will they happen?\u00a0 Who will be included?\u00a0 When will they take place? All the rows certainly make for good copy. But we are missing the bigger question, which is what do these debates actually mean?\u00a0 How can we read them and their significance? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1269,"featured_media":35,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32286],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-election-2015"],"yoast_head":"\nLeaders\u2019 Debates \u2013 a lot of fuss about nothing? - Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edgehill.ac.uk\/comment\/2015\/02\/11\/leaders-debates-a-lot-of-fuss-about-nothing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Leaders\u2019 Debates \u2013 a lot of fuss about nothing? - Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s certainly been a huge amount of fuss about the Leaders\u2019 debates.\u00a0 Will they happen?\u00a0 Who will be included?\u00a0 When will they take place? 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